Low Dose Aspirin for Venous Leg Ulcers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapymyocardialanginainfarctionlow
  Phrases that lowered it: participantrandomisedtrialclinicalaged
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 211030 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Aspirin for Venous Ulcers: Randomised Trial (AVURT) NCT02333123 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Dose-response Relationship Study of S42909 on Leg Ulcer Healing NCT03077165 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Dose Finding Study of HP802-247 in Venous Leg Ulcers NCT00852995 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Assess the Safety and Activity of Nexagon® for the Treatment of Venous Leg Ulcers (The NOVEL Study) NCT00820196 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Nexagon® as a Topical Treatment for Subjects With Venous Leg Ulcers NCT01199588 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.