A Trial to Assess the Safety and Activity of Nexagon® for the Treatment of Venous Leg Ulcers (The NOVEL Study)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celldlpatientsrheumatoidcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: ulcerreferencetopicalpatients whoperiod
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Nexagon® as a Topical Treatment for Subjects With Venous Leg Ulcers NCT01199588 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• The ASCEND Study: A Study to Investigate the Safety and Clinical Effect of Nexagon to Treat Slow Healing Diabetic Foot Ulcers NCT00820703 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• Aspirin for Venous Ulcers: Randomised Trial (AVURT) NCT02333123 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate the Safety and Clinical Effect of Nexagon® as a Topical Treatment for Subjects With a Diabetic Foot Ulcer (DUNE) NCT01490879 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Trial of HP802-247 in the Treatment of Chronic Venous Leg Ulcers NCT01853384 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.