Efficacy and Safety of Different Concentrations of ZK245186 in Atopic Dermatitis (AD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-04-30, after 2010-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breastplacebopatientdiagnosis offeeding
Phrases that lowered it: dermatitisatopicefficacy andand safetythe efficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 346 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 346 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 131 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dose Escalation of Different Concentrations of ZK 245186 in Atopic Dermatitis NCT00944632 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of ZPL389 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03517566 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Determine the Safety & Efficacy of ZPL-5212372 in Healthy Subjects and in Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT02795832 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study to Determine the Efficacy of ZPL-3893787 in Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT02424253 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Trial of HY209gel in Atopic Dermatitis Patients NCT06024499 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.