A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of ZPL389 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: moderate toto severeadreceptorin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: dermatitisatopictopicaleffectstudy to
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1170 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Determine the Efficacy of ZPL-3893787 in Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT02424253 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of ZPL389 With TCS/TCI in Atopic Dermatitis Patients NCT03948334 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Different Concentrations of ZK245186 in Atopic Dermatitis (AD) NCT01228513 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Determine the Safety & Efficacy of ZPL-5212372 in Healthy Subjects and in Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT02795832 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3454738 in the Treatment of Adult Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05911841 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.