A Study to Determine the Efficacy of ZPL-3893787 in Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-02-03, after 2015-05-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectintravenousscaleto determinedays
Phrases that lowered it: dermatitistopicalatopicacnearea -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of ZPL389 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03517566 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Determine the Safety & Efficacy of ZPL-5212372 in Healthy Subjects and in Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT02795832 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Different Concentrations of ZK245186 in Atopic Dermatitis (AD) NCT01228513 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- B244 Topical Spray for the Treatment of Pruritus in Adults With a History of Atopic Dermatitis NCT04490109 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Study to Determine the Efficacy of ZPL-3893787 in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis NCT02618616 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.