Bosutinib For Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal toplacebopfgreater
  Phrases that lowered it: polycysticblood pressurepharmacokineticsdiseasediastolic blood
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 397 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 854 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Tolvaptan in Subjects With Chronic Kidney Disease Between Late Stage 2 to Early Stage 4 Due to Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT02160145 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• The ELiSA Study - Evaluation of Lixivaptan in Subjects With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT03487913 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Bardoxolone Methyl in Patients With ADPKD - FALCON NCT03918447 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Pharmacokinetics, Tolerability and Efficacy of Tolvaptan in Children and Adolescents With ADPKD (Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease) NCT02964273 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• The Efficacy of Everolimus in Reducing Total Native Kidney Volume in Polycystic Kidney Disease Transplanted Recipients NCT02134899 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.