Safety and Efficacy Study of BMS-908662 in Combination With Ipilimumab in Subjects With Advanced Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagetumormelanomabmsiv
  Phrases that lowered it: maleevaluate theto evaluatesubjectsand female
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 273 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ph I Ipilimumab Vemurafenib Combo in Patients With v-Raf Murine Sarcoma Viral Oncogene Homolog B1 (BRAF) NCT01400451 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• Dose-escalation Study of Combination BMS-936558 (MDX-1106) and Ipilimumab in Subjects With Unresectable Stage III or Stage IV Malignant Melanoma NCT01024231 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Plus Ipilimumab Compared With Ipilimumab Alone in the Treatment of Previously Untreated, Unresectable, or Metastatic Melanoma NCT01927419 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Phase II Safety Study of Vemurafenib Followed by Ipilimumab in Subjects With V600 BRAF Mutated Advanced Melanoma NCT01673854 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab Combined With Ipilimumab Followed by Nivolumab Monotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT02599402 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.