Allo Transplant Followed by Lenalidomide and Sirolimus Maintenance in High-Risk Multiple Myeloma (MM)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-07-28, after 2011-02-07 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomadonorbreastserum
Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultiplehealthyparticipantsvisit -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 37.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 25072 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6719 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 37.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lenalidomide, sirolimus, tacrolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dendritic Cell/Myeloma Fusion Vaccine for Multiple Myeloma (BMT CTN 1401) NCT02728102 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Lenalidomide and High Dose Melphalan Followed by Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in Multiple Myeloma NCT01142232 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Lenalidomide (Revlimid®) Plus Low-dose Dexamethasone (Ld x 4 Cycles) Then Stem Cell Collection Followed by Randomization to Continued Ld or Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT) Plus Maintenance L NCT00807599 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic GM-CSF Vaccine and Lenalidomide in Treating Myeloma Patients With Near Complete Remission NCT01349569 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Lenalidomide After Donor Stem Cell Transplant and Bortezomib in Treating Patients With High Risk Multiple Myeloma NCT01954784 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.