Topical MTS-01 for Dermatitis During Radiation and Chemotherapy for Anal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 24% of the time (231 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-04-15, after 2011-03-18 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal toradiationchemotherapyimaging
Phrases that lowered it: participantsto evaluatetopicalevaluate thedermatitis -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 306 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 486 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 486 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 306 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12839 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1894 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fluorouracil, mitomycin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Radiation Therapy, Cisplatin, Fluorouracil, and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Anal Cancer NCT00955240 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
- Imiquimod, Fluorouracil, or Observation in Treating HIV-Positive Patients With High-Grade Anal Squamous Skin Lesions NCT02059499 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- Vectibix for the Treatment of Anal Cancer NCT01285778 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Non-Operative Radiation Management of Adenocarcinoma of the Lower Rectum NCT02641691 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Phase I Study of Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy With 5-Fluorouracil for Rectal Cancer NCT02270606 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.