Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Oral LDE225 in Treatment of Patients With Nevoid Basal Cell Carcinoma Syndrome (NBCCS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacellmetastaticphase iiradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsperiodscreeningthe efficacydrug
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 277 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 287 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Evaluate the Safety, Local Tolerability, PK and PD of LDE225 on Sporadic Superficial and Nodular Skin Basal Cell Carcinomas (sBCC) NCT01033019 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• A Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Local Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of LDE225 on Skin Basal Cell Carcinomas in Gorlin Syndrome Patients NCT00961896 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study of Efficacy and Safety in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT01327053 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• A Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2%, for the Reduction of Disease Burden of Persistently Developing Basal Cell Carcinomas in Patients With Non-Gorlin High Frequency BCC NCT04155190 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Open-Label Proof of Concept Study of VP-315 in Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT05188729 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.