Granulocyte Macrophage-Colony Stimulating Factor and Ipilimumab as Therapy in Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermelanomapatientstherapystage
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate thesinglesubjectsefficacy
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase I/II Open-Label Study of Ipilimumab and GM-CSF Administered to Unresectable Stage IIIC and Stage IV Melanoma Patients NCT02009397 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• THE IPI - Trial in Advanced Melanoma: Melanoma Patients With Advanced Disease NCT01355120 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• High-Dose Aldesleukin and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma That Cannot Be Removed By Surgery NCT02203604 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• A Phase II Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Combined Treatment With Ipilimumab and Intratumoral Interleukin-2 NCT01480323 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of Ipilumimab and Radiation in Poor Prognosis Melanoma NCT01996202 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.