The Effects of Very Early Use of Rosuvastatin in Preventing Recurrence of Ischemic Stroke

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mrisubjectto assessplaceboimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsstatinparticipantldl14 days
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6639 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neuroprotection With Statin Therapy for Acute Recovery Trial Phase 2 NCT01976936 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and the Safety of Single Pill Combination (SPC) Ezetimibe/Rosuvastatin in Chinese Adult Patients With Primary Hypercholesterolemia Not Adequately Controlled on Statin Therapy NCT04669041 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of UI022/UI023 NCT07600385 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• The Study of Quantitative Serial Trends in Lipids With ApolpoproteinA-I Stimulation NCT01423188 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• VISTA-16 Trial: Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of Short-term A-002 Treatment in Subjects With Acute Coronary Syndrome NCT01130246 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.