Neuroprotection With Statin Therapy for Acute Recovery Trial Phase 2

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpatientsischemicstrokebrain
  Phrases that lowered it: 30 daysmildsafetywithin 30randomized
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Effects of Very Early Use of Rosuvastatin in Preventing Recurrence of Ischemic Stroke NCT01364220 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• VISTA-16 Trial: Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of Short-term A-002 Treatment in Subjects With Acute Coronary Syndrome NCT01130246 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Administering Multiple Oral Doses of GSK1292263 Alone and With Atorvastatin NCT01218204 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Combined Effects of Non-statin Treatments on Apolipoprotein A-I Up-Regulation (CENTAUR): A Feasibility Study NCT00728910 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• The Study of Quantitative Serial Trends in Lipids With ApolpoproteinA-I Stimulation NCT01423188 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.