Phase I/II Pilot Study of Mixed Chimerism to Treat Inherited Metabolic Disorders

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantcellpatients mustradiationdonor
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesdisorderscriteria patientshepaticfemale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Conditioning Regimen for Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation NCT03513328 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Trial of a Single ProHema-CB Product Transplant in Pediatric Patients With Inherited Metabolic Disorders NCT02354443 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Calcineurin Inhibitor-Free Interventions BMT CTN 1301 for Prevention of Graft-versus-Host Disease (BMT CTN 1301) NCT02345850 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• High Dose Cyclophosphamide, Tacrolimus, and Mycophenolate Mofetil in Preventing Graft Versus Host Disease in Patients With Hematological Malignancies Undergoing Myeloablative or Reduced Intensity Donor Stem Cell Transplant NCT03128359 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Pilot and Feasibility Study of Reduced-Intensity Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant for MonoMAC NCT00923364 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.