A Study of the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacodynamics of MK-8931 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (MK-8931-010 AM1 [P07820 AM1])

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradcelllongcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacodynamicsliverbodyhepatitisindex
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 847 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 164 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of MK-1942 as an Adjunct Therapy in Participants With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Dementia (MK-1942-008) NCT05602727 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• MK-1942/Donepezil Interactions in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (MK-1942-005) NCT04308304 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of MK-7622 as Adjunct Therapy in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (MK-7622-012) NCT01852110 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Elpipodect (MK-8189) Safety and Tolerability in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease With or Without Symptoms of Agitation-Aggression and/or Psychosis (MK-8189-017) NCT05227118 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of MK-1167 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease Dementia Taking Stable Donepezil Treatment (MK-1167-007) NCT06285240 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.