MK-1942/Donepezil Interactions in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (MK-1942-005)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: has historysubject hasscreeningprior todisorder
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsrespiratoryasthmachronic obstructiveobstructive pulmonary
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1310 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of MK-1942 as an Adjunct Therapy in Participants With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Dementia (MK-1942-008) NCT05602727 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of MK-1167 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease Dementia Taking Stable Donepezil Treatment (MK-1167-007) NCT06285240 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Bryostatin Treatment of Moderately Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT04538066 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Study of Bryostatin in Moderately Severe to Severe Alzheimer's Disease Subjects Not On Memantine NCT03560245 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Receptor Occupancy of BMS-984923 NCT04805983 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.