Efficacy, Pharmacodynamics, Safety and Tolerability of Oral BL-7040 in Patients With Moderately Active Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: colitisbowelulcerativesubjects withdiagnosis of
  Phrases that lowered it: visitto evaluateevaluate thesigningconsent form
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, digestive: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of PBF-677 in Ulcerative Colitis Patients NCT03773952 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of BBT-401-1S in Ulcerative Colitis NCT03800420 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
• Study of OSE-127 vs Placebo in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT04882007 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Orally Administered BBT-401-1S in Subjects With Ulcerative Colitis NCT04596293 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests How BI 655130 Works in Patients With Active Ulcerative Colitis. The Study Also Tests How Well BI 655130 is Tolerated and Whether it Helps the Patients NCT03100864 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.