Pediatric Arthritis Study of Certolizumab Pegol

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorstablebaselinediseaseassess the
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsarthritispharmacokineticsefficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 34.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Allocation: not applicable (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 10 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• RICE: Remission by Intra-articular Injection Plus CErtolizumab NCT02293590 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Active Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA) Compassionate Use NCT00775437 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Golimumab in Pediatric Participants With Active Polyarticular Course Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Despite Methotrexate Therapy NCT02277444 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Study of Certolizumab Pegol as Additional Therapy in Chinese Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02151851 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics of Certolizumab Pegol in Adults With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT04740814 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.