Crizotinib and Ganetespib (STA-9090) in ALK Positive Lung Cancers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorbraincarcinoma ofcoronarydefined
  Phrases that lowered it: hepaticdrugsgelsafetyinadequate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 325 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 88 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PI3K Inhibitor BKM120, Carboplatin, and Pemetrexed Disodium in Treating Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01723800 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Trial of AMG 479, Everolimus (RAD001) and Panitumumab in Patients With Advanced Cancer - QUILT-3.007 NCT01061788 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Gefitinib in Combination With BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, With Enrichment for Patients Whose Tumours Harbour Molecular Alterations of PI3K Pathway and Known to Overexpress EGFR NCT01570296 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Trial of Erlotinib and BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Previously Sensitive to Erlotinib NCT01487265 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• GDC-0941 and Cisplatin in Treating Patients With Androgen Receptor-Negative Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01918306 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.