EGF Ointment for Erlotinib Skin Lesion

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancererlotinibnsclcmetastaticgrowth
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalpatient withefficacy20diseases
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot Trial of EGF Ointment for the Patients With EGFR-i Related Skin Side Effects NCT02284139 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Skin Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT01198028 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Phase II Trial of Erlotinib, Prior to Surgery or Radiation in Patients With Squamous Cell Cancers (SCC) of the Skin NCT01059305 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Systemic and Topical Treatments for Rash Secondary to Erlotinib in Lung Cancer NCT00473083 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Hydrochloride and Onalespib Lactate in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic EGFR-Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02535338 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.