AZD2014 and Fulvestrant in Patients With ER+ Advanced Metastatic Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-01-13, after 2012-05-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticevidence ofcancermeasurableprior
Phrases that lowered it: safetypharmacokineticsagedestrogenwithin weeks -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1092 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1092 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 232 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1295 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 322 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fulvestrant, vistusertib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- AZD9496 First Time in Patients Ascending Dose Study NCT02248090 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of AZD4547 in Combination With Fulvestrant vs. Fulvestrant Alone in ER+ Breast Cancer Patients NCT01202591 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Study of AZD2014 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Metastatic or Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02216786 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Study of Combined Fulvestrant and Everolimus in Advanced/Metastatic Breast Cancer After Aromatase Inhibitor Failure NCT00570921 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Study of AZD9833 in Japanese Women With ER Positive, HER2 Negative Advanced Breast Cancer NCT04541433 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.