Elderly Metastatic Breast Cancer: Pertuzumab-Herceptin vs Pertuzumab-Herceptin-Metronomic Chemotherapy, Followed by T-DM1

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsurgerymetastaticchemotherapycarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgtrialcombinationdiastolicsystolic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 1303GCC: Trastuzmab & Pertuzumab With Hormonal Therapy or Chemotherapy in Women Aged 60 and Over. NCT02000596 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Neoadjuvant Phase II Trial in Patients With T1c Operable, HER2-positive Breast Cancer According to TOP2A Status NCT02339532 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare Neoadjuvant Combination of Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab With Concurrent Taxane Chemotherapy or Endocrine Therapy and Quality of Life Assessment Under Adjuvant Therapy in Operable HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer Patients NCT03272477 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Pertuzumab + Trastuzumab + Docetaxel vs. Placebo + Trastuzumab + Docetaxel in Previously Untreated HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00567190 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Safety Study in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Progressed After Taxanes Treatment. NCT01050322 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.