A Multinational, Randomized, Open-Label Study of Custirsen In Patients With Advanced or Metastatic (Stage IV) Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclcrandomizationlung cancercell lungsmall cell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsadvancedsolidpatientsweeks
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 2082 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7180 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial of Carboplatin and Pemetrexed +/- OGX-427 in Untreated Stage IV Non-Squamous-Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT01829113 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Study of Chemotherapy and Ramucirumab Versus Chemotherapy Alone in Second Line Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Participants Who Received Prior First Line Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT01168973 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel + Plinabulin Compared to Docetaxel + Placebo in Patients With Advanced NSCLC NCT02504489 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Trial With Cetuximab in Maintenance Therapy After Platinum Based Chemotherapy in First Line Treatment of Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00820755 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• AB-16B5 Combined With Docetaxel in Subjects With Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (EGIA-002) NCT04364620 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.