Study of Erlotinib and Metformin in Triple Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustheartcancermetformincongestive
  Phrases that lowered it: weeksdayadvancedprior tosigned
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 48 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16043 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 79 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 66945 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Temsirolimus, Erlotinib and Cisplatin in Solid Tumors NCT00998036 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Combination of Metformin With Gefitinib to Treat NSCLC NCT01864681 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Trial of Erlotinib and BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Previously Sensitive to Erlotinib NCT01487265 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Hydrochloride and Onalespib Lactate in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic EGFR-Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02535338 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Metformin and Carbohydrate Restriction With Platinum Based Chemotherapy In Stage IIIB/IV Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NS-NSCLC) NCT02019979 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.