Cardioprotective and Metabolic Effects of Metformin in Patients With Heart Failure and Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (56 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-12-31, after 2012-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronicdiabetesplaceboanemiablood
Phrases that lowered it: plasmathe aimthe effectfunctionaim of -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14437 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 68091 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14437 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Metformin in Heart Failure Without Diabetes NCT03331861 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- Insulin Treatment in Diabetic Older People With Heart Failure. NCT03665350 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- Effects of Metformin Treatment on Myocardial Efficiency in Patients With Heart Failure NCT02810132 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Hyperglycemia on LV Function and Exercise Capacity in Diabetics With and Without Heart Failure. NCT01071772 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- ERtugliflozin triAl in DIabetes With Preserved or Reduced ejeCtion FrAcTion mEchanistic Evaluation in Heart Failure NCT03416270 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.