Metformin in Heart Failure Without Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-08-20, after 2019-02-15 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heart failuresurgerypatientsventriculardefined
Phrases that lowered it: metformincopdalcoholresistanceparticipation -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 250396 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 326 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 326 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 19.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 104 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 250396 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 39751 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 64.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effects of Metformin Treatment on Myocardial Efficiency in Patients With Heart Failure NCT02810132 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Cardioprotective and Metabolic Effects of Metformin in Patients With Heart Failure and Diabetes NCT01690091 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Metformin for Older Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT05093959 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Insulin Treatment in Diabetic Older People With Heart Failure. NCT03665350 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- Effects of Empagliflozin on Diuresis and Renal Function in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT04049045 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.