Effects of Metformin Treatment on Myocardial Efficiency in Patients With Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularpatientmyocardialheart failurepatients
  Phrases that lowered it: metforminalcoholabusejudgedglucose
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 174582 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Metformin in Heart Failure Without Diabetes NCT03331861 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Cardioprotective and Metabolic Effects of Metformin in Patients With Heart Failure and Diabetes NCT01690091 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Metformin for Older Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT05093959 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests Empagliflozin in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF). The Study Looks at How Far Patients Can Walk in 6 Minutes and at Their Heart Failure Symptoms. NCT03448406 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests Empagliflozin in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF). The Study Looks at How Far Patients Can Walk in 6 Minutes and at Their Heart Failure Symptoms NCT03448419 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.