Riluzole in Mild Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 95 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainsubjectcoronarymultiplemri
  Phrases that lowered it: disorderparticipantseverenicotinemild
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase I Clinical Study on the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of [18F]Florbetazine Injection NCT06593626 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacological Effects of PU AD in Subjects With Mild AD Dementia NCT04311515 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Brain Synaptic Density NCT03493282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2a Study to Evaluate the Effect of Rilapladib (SB-659032) in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01428453 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GSK4527226 [AL101] in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT06079190 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.