Melatonin and Glucose Tolerance Among Individuals With a Variant of the MTNR1B Gene
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (159 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-08-31, after 2012-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: glucosediabetesreceptorgenetreatment
Phrases that lowered it: blood pressuregenotypeeffect ofthe effecthypertension -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 23 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1884 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 609 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- melatonin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Acute Metabolic Effects of Melatonin Treatment NCT03204877 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Metabolic Effects of Melatonin Treatment NCT03859934 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Melatonin and the Metabolic Syndrome NCT01038921 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Diabetic Retinopathy: Effects of Melatonin Treatment on Visual Functions and Circadian Rhythm NCT03478306 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous, Rectal, Intravesical, Vaginal, and Transdermal Melatonin in Healthy Female Volunteers NCT03519750 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.