Diabetic Retinopathy: Effects of Melatonin Treatment on Visual Functions and Circadian Rhythm
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-06-12, after 2018-03-27 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placeborhythmdiseasediabeticpregnancy
Phrases that lowered it: participantinteractionmgwill receivethe effect -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 48 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 13798 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3589 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 59.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, neurology, psychiatry, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- melatonin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Metabolic Effects of Melatonin Treatment NCT03859934 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Acute Metabolic Effects of Melatonin Treatment NCT03204877 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Effect of Doxycycline Verses Placebo on Retinal Function and Diabetic Retinopathy NCT00917553 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Melatonin and Glucose Tolerance Among Individuals With a Variant of the MTNR1B Gene NCT01705639 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study to Learn More About How Well 8 Milligram Aflibercept Works and How Safe it is in Chinese Participants With Diabetic Macular Edema NCT06422507 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.