Sotatercept in Treating Patients With Myeloproliferative Neoplasm-Associated Myelofibrosis or Anemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equal toulnheartpatientto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: judgedblooddaytrialhiv
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 41.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 169 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 396 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 549 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Study of SAR302503 in Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT01420770 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study in Japanese Patients With Intermediate-2 or High Risk Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-Polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis With Splenomegaly NCT01692366 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Momelotinib Versus Ruxolitinib in Subjects With Myelofibrosis NCT01969838 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Simtuzumab in Adults With Primary, Post Polycythemia Vera or Post Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis NCT01369498 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Fostamatinib as a Single Agent or in Combination With Ruxolitinib for Treatment of Patients With Myelofibrosis With Severe Thrombocytopenia NCT04543279 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.