Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of MEDI2070 in Patients With Active, Moderate-to-severe Crohn's Disease.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equalto screeningmonths priorplaceboleast months
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateto severeand safetyevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1158 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 164 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 3 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Brazikumab (MEDI2070) in Participants With Active, Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT02574637 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of MDGN-002 in Adults With Moderate to Severe Active Crohn's Disease or Ulcerative Colitis NCT03169894 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Participants With Active Crohn's Disease NCT02891226 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging Study of BMS-945429 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT01545050 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy Study of JNJ-64304500 in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02877134 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.