Evaluation of the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of MDGN-002 in Adults With Moderate to Severe Active Crohn's Disease or Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (176 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasbowelsafety tolerabilitycolitisdiagnosis of
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theopen labelefficacyto evaluateterm
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of MEDI2070 in Patients With Active, Moderate-to-severe Crohn's Disease. NCT01714726 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Whether Etrolizumab is a Safe and Efficacious Treatment for Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02394028 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study To Assess The Efficacy And Safety Of PF-04236921 In Subjects With Crohn's Disease Who Failed Anti-TNF Therapy NCT01287897 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Andecaliximab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02405442 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Participants With Active Crohn's Disease NCT02891226 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.