Safety and Immunogenicity of a Monovalent Inactivated Influenza H3N2 Variant (H3N2v) Vaccine in Adult and Elderly Populations
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (122 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-08-31, after 2013-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreaterwomen ofphase ii
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationhealthyinfluenzaimmunogenicity -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 88 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 919 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 919 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 88 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Immunogenicity of a Monovalent Inactivated Influenza H3N2 Variant (H3N2v) Vaccine in Pediatric Populations NCT02100436 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Live Attenuated Virus Vaccine to Prevent Influenza H3N2v Disease NCT02883426 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Immunogenicity of Three Dosage Levels of Swine Influenza Vaccine in Children Ages 3 to <9 Years, Adolescents 9 to <18 Years, Adults 18 to <65 Years and Elderly 65 Years and Older. NCT01855945 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of a Live-attenuated Universal Flu Vaccine Followed by an Inactivated Universal Flu Vaccine NCT03300050 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immune Response of Candidate H1N1 Influenza Vaccine GSK2340274A Following Seasonal Influenza Vaccination in Adults NCT01059617 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.