Comparison Between Cyclophosphamide and Combination of Methotrexate + Calcineurin Inhibitor for GVHD Prophylaxis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantleukemiadiseasechronicto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: reference18 tocombinationstudy tovalues
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 106762 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21510 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Busulfan and Fludarabine Followed by Post-transplant Cyclophosphamide NCT00800839 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Comparing Cyclophosphamide and Abatacept With Standard of Care Treatment Following Stem Cell Transplantation NCT03680092 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Low-dose PT-Cy for Prevention of GVHD in Ambulatory Allogeneic HSCT NCT07319000 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Post Transplant High-Dose Cy as GvHD Prophylaxis in 1 HLA Mismatched Unrelated HSCT for Myeloid Malignancies NCT03270748 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Cyclophosphamide Versus Anti-thymocyte Globulin for GVHD Prophylaxis After RIC Allo-SCT NCT02876679 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.