A Study of MCMV5322A/MCMV3068A for the Prevention of Cytomegalovirus Disease in High-Risk Kidney Allograft Recipients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodonortransplantationtransplantkidney
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantshighthe usetrial
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 135 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Letermovir Versus Valganciclovir to Prevent Human Cytomegalovirus Disease in Kidney Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-002) NCT03443869 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• MK-8228 (Letermovir) in the Prevention of Human Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection and Disease in Adult Japanese Kidney Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-042) NCT04129398 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Letermovir (MK-8228) Versus Placebo in the Prevention of Clinically-Significant Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection in Adult, CMV-Seropositive Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-001) NCT02137772 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of Brincidofovir Versus Valganciclovir for the Prevention of Cytomegalovirus NCT02439957 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 3 Study of Brincidofovir Versus Valganciclovir for the Prevention of Cytomegalovirus Disease NCT02439970 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.