Intravenous Gammaglobulin for Sickle Cell Pain Crises

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (32 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellimagingdlmrievidence of
  Phrases that lowered it: painclinicallyparticipation invaccinationallergy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 13 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of GMI-1070 for the Treatment of Sickle Cell Pain Crisis NCT01119833 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Pain Management in Children and Young Adults With Sickle Cell Disease NCT01954927 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study of a Single Dose of Inclacumab to Reduce Re-admission in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease and Recurrent Vaso-occlusive Crises NCT04927247 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Efficacy of Crovalimab for the Management of Acute Uncomplicated Vaso-Occlusive Episodes (VOE) in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease (SCD). NCT04912869 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Rivipansel (GMI-1070) in the Treatment of Vaso-Occlusive Crisis in Hospitalized Subjects With Sickle Cell Disease NCT02187003 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.