A Multiple Ascending Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of AVE8112 in Patients With Parkinson's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diagnosismultipleascendingdiseaseplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: physicalimmunologicalpatientsinvestigatorcontaining
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability Study of APL-130277 for the Acute Treatment of OFF Episodes in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02469090 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety and Tolerability of Oral AZD3241 in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT01603069 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Aplindore in Patients With Early Parkinson Disease NCT00809302 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• ADX48621 for the Treatment of Levodopa Induced Dyskinesia in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT01336088 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ABT-SLV187 Monotherapy in Subjects With Advanced Parkinson's Disease (PD) and Persistent Motor Complications, Despite Optimized Treatment With Available Anti-Parkinsonian Medications NCT01960842 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.