A Study of LY2886721 in Healthy Participants and Participants Diagnosed With Alzheimer's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-05-31, after 2013-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: participantsalzheimerhepatitisparticipanthiv
Phrases that lowered it: healthythe investigatorexaminationbmikg -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 738 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 182 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 738 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 182 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3002813 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01837641 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3372993 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and Healthy Participants NCT04451408 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2599666 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment or Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT02614131 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
- Study of LY2886721 in Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease or Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT01561430 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Lanabecestat (LY3314814) in Participants With Mild Alzheimer's Disease Dementia NCT02783573 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.