Comparing Complete Remission After Treatment With Selumetinib/Placebo in Patient With Differentiated Thyroid Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-03-06, after 2013-08-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertherapylymphcmtumor
Phrases that lowered it: evaluateefficacyrandomisedplaceboblind -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1194 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 268 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 130 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1194 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 140 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 811 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 268 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- iodine, selumetinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nexavar® Versus Placebo in Locally Advanced/Metastatic RAI-Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer NCT00984282 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Oral Lenvatinib in Medullary and Iodine-131 Refractory, Unresectable Differentiated Thyroid Cancers, Stratified by Histology NCT00784303 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Study of Apatinib in Patients With Differentiated Thyroid Cancer NCT02731352 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- rhTSH for Radioactive Iodine Remnant Ablation in Participants With Differentiated Thyroid Cancer (DTC) NCT04964284 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Sorafenib Phase II Study for Japanese Anaplastic or Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients NCT02114658 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.