Safety and Efficacy of Squaric Acid Dibutyl Ester for the Treatment of Herpes Labialis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-09-30, after 2013-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseasesubjectdetermined bysubjectsmonths
Phrases that lowered it: trial toclinical trialreceivedefficacyinvestigational -
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 193 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 395 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 395 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 193 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- squaric acid, squaric acid dibutyl ester
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase 2, Muti-Center Study of Repeat Dosing of Squaric Acid Dibutyl Ester in Subjects With Herpes Labialis NCT03521479 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
- Double-blind, Vehicle-controlled Study of the Efficacy and Safety of SADBE in Subjects With Recurrent Herpes Labialis NCT02965781 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Immune Response and General Immune Health in Subjects Infected With Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 (HSV-1) NCT03661541 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- A Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study of Topical VDO for the Treatment of Herpes Simplex Labialis NCT02207881 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- EDTA Eye Drops Compared to Abreva for Herpes Simplex Virus Eruptions NCT04893577 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.