Double-blind, Vehicle-controlled Study of the Efficacy and Safety of SADBE in Subjects With Recurrent Herpes Labialis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (118 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasinfectionsubject istime ofrecurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: trialasthmavisitvehicleparticipants
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Squaric Acid Dibutyl Ester for the Treatment of Herpes Labialis NCT01971385 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2, Muti-Center Study of Repeat Dosing of Squaric Acid Dibutyl Ester in Subjects With Herpes Labialis NCT03521479 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Immune Response and General Immune Health in Subjects Infected With Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 (HSV-1) NCT03661541 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• EDTA Eye Drops Compared to Abreva for Herpes Simplex Virus Eruptions NCT04893577 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter Study of NB-001 in the Treatment of Recurrent Herpes Labialis (SHaRCS) NCT01324466 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.