A Phase II Trial Testing Oral Administration of Lucitanib in Patients With Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor (FGFR)1-amplified or Non-amplified Estrogen Receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastatic breastventricularlefttherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: agedsinglethe aimaim ofimpaired
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of the VEGFR-FGFR-PDGFR Inhibitor, Lucitanib, Given to Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02202746 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of the VEGFR-FGFR Inhibitor, Lucitanib, Given to Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Lung Cancer and FGF, VEGF, or PDGF Related Genetic Alterations NCT02109016 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Study of Oral Lucitanib (E-3810), a Dual VEGFR-FGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor, in Patients With Solid Tumors NCT01283945 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of TKI258 in FGFR1 Amplified and Non-amplified Metastatic HER2 Negative Breast Cancer NCT00958971 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Letrozole in Patients With ER+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02491983 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.