Colchicine in Vascular Inflammation Assessed With PET Imaging
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-01-31, after 2014-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellpatientcarcinomaanginaheart
Phrases that lowered it: effectinvestigatorjudgedaminotransferasehistory -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- supportive care (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 17 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4576 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 657 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Canadian Study of Arterial Inflammation in Patients With Diabetes and Vascular Events: EvaluatioN of Colchicine NCT04181996 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Colchicine Cardiovascular Outcomes Trial (COLCOT) NCT02551094 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Colchicine in High-risk Patients With Acute Minor-to-moderate Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (CHANCE-3) NCT05439356 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Effect of PCSK9 Inhibition on Cardiovascular Risk in Treated HIV Infection (EPIC-HIV Study) NCT03207945 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Colchicine in HFpEF NCT04857931 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.