Colchicine in HFpEF
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-03-07, after 2022-06-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientventricularcoronaryheartfailure
Phrases that lowered it: indexvisitscreeningm2body mass -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 36 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 20424 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2065 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Randomized Double-blind Trial to Study the Benefit of Colchicine in Patients With Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure NCT04705987 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Effect of Elamipretide on Left Ventricular Function in Subjects With Stable Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02788747 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Biomarker Guided Therapies in Stage A/B Heart Failure NCT02230891 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- A Research Study to Look at How Ziltivekimab Works Compared to Placebo in People With Heart Failure and Inflammation NCT05636176 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AZD4831 in Participants With Heart Failure With Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction > 40% NCT04986202 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.