Comparing the Outcome in Patients of Acute Pancreatitis, With and Without Prophylactic Antibiotics
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-12-31, after 2013-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pancreatitis18 totuberculosisacuteonset
Phrases that lowered it: patients whocriteria patientsmildand multipledisease patients -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 36.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3175 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 814 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 36.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- meropenem
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pentoxifylline Treatment in Acute Pancreatitis (AP) NCT02487225 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Neostigmine Treatment of Acute Pancreatitis Combined With Intra-abdominal Hypertension NCT02543658 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Aggressive Versus Non-aggressive Goal-directed Fluid Resuscitation in Acute Pancreatitis NCT04381169 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
- Prophylaxis of Post-ERCP Acute Pancreatitis NCT05381428 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Use of Streptokinase for Enhancement of Percutaneous Drainage of Pancreatic Necrosis NCT01977118 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.