Neostigmine Treatment of Acute Pancreatitis Combined With Intra-abdominal Hypertension
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-05-30, after 2015-09-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutepatientsabdominalonsetinfarction
Phrases that lowered it: effectasthmagastrointestinalallergicintestinal -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 642 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 106 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, digestive, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- neostigmine, neostigmine methylsulfate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Comparing the Outcome in Patients of Acute Pancreatitis, With and Without Prophylactic Antibiotics NCT02212392 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of SCM-AGH in Patients With Moderate to Severe Acute Pancreatitis NCT04189419 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- A Study of EUR-1066 in Subjects With Chronic Pancreatitis, Exocrine Pancreatic Insufficiency and Chronic Abdominal Pain NCT01159119 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
- Effects of Peripherally Acting µ-opioid Receptor Antagonists on Acute Pancreatitis NCT04743570 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Prophylaxis of Post-ERCP Acute Pancreatitis NCT05381428 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.