A Safety and Tolerability Study of JNJ-54861911 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeraddementiatolerabilitydisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsat screeningjnjtermhealthy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 107 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Extension Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety and Tolerability of JNJ-54861911 in Participants in the Early Alzheimer's Disease Spectrum NCT02406027 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Effects of JNJ-54861911 on Amyloid Beta Processing in Cerebrospinal Fluid and Plasma in Patients With Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease NCT01978548 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Atabecestat in Participants Who Are Asymptomatic at Risk for Developing Alzheimer's Dementia NCT02569398 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• A Study of JNJ-63733657 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT04619420 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate Safety and Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of JNJ-63733657 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease NCT03375697 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.