An Extension Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety and Tolerability of JNJ-54861911 in Participants in the Early Alzheimer's Disease Spectrum

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 39% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termterm safetyalzheimercompletedthe long
  Phrases that lowered it: participantweeksmoderateparticipantsclinical trial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 112 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 183 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety and Tolerability Study of JNJ-54861911 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02260674 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Study of JNJ-63733657 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT04619420 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• An Efficacy and Safety Trial of Verubecestat (MK-8931) in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease (P07738) NCT01739348 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• 2-Year Extension Study of Azeliragon in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease (STEADFAST Extension) NCT02916056 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of MK-1167 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease Dementia Taking Stable Donepezil Treatment (MK-1167-007) NCT06285240 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.