A Study of JNJ-63733657 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradplacebodementiaparticipant
  Phrases that lowered it: effectscreeningimpairmentfunctionpressure
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 453 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety and Tolerability Study of JNJ-54861911 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02260674 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Safety and Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of JNJ-63733657 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease NCT03375697 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• An Extension Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety and Tolerability of JNJ-54861911 in Participants in the Early Alzheimer's Disease Spectrum NCT02406027 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Effects of JNJ-54861911 on Amyloid Beta Processing in Cerebrospinal Fluid and Plasma in Patients With Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease NCT01978548 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Testing the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of the New Drug ORY-2001 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03867253 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.